Timing Isn’t Everything: Why Staying Invested Matters Most

There are weeks when checking the markets can make you feel uneasy. If the losses continue for months, you might even start to panic.

These feelings are natural. They are also not helpful. Too many people give in to their fears and try to “get it right,” selling off investments during a downturn and buying when the markets start going up again. Unfortunately, this approach can cost you big.

Maybe you’ve heard people say “you can’t time the markets.” Let’s look at what timing the markets means, why it’s a problem, and what you can do instead.

What “Timing the Markets” Really Means

When you react to the markets by buying or selling investments, what you’re doing is trying to “time the markets” (whether you realize it or not). Everyone wants to buy low and sell high, but trading ahead of market movements isn’t easy. You need better information than most investors and good timing, which is hard for anyone, especially if investing isn’t your full-time job.

In fact, even experienced traders struggle to get their timing right. Decades of research have shown that the average investment manager who employs an active trading strategy fails to beat the markets.¹ Individual traders frequently do even worse.²

Why Timing Markets Rarely Works

Timing the markets can be difficult because as an investor, you must be right twice. You have to move your money out at the peak and buy back in when markets hit rock bottom. The trouble is you likely won’t have any clear signal on either end. Instead, you’ll probably watch markets go down some before selling and wait for evidence of a recovery before buying, meaning you don’t end up selling very high or buying very low. In other words, you lock in losses and don’t participate in the early stage of recovery gains, which are often some of the strongest.

Markets are also volatile from day to day. You might think you’re at the peak, but sometimes the climb continues. And good luck predicting the bottom. The bottom is often where the news is the worst and headlines are the scariest. But markets are forward looking, often recovering far before an “all clear” sign in the media.

A day or two here or there might not seem like much, but it can make a difference. If you had invested $500,000 into the S&P 500 in 1988, you would have $16 million in 2022. However, if you missed the 10 highest performing days during that time, you would have less than half that amount.³

The Power of Staying Invested

We’ve seen significant market downturns in recent years, but historically, markets have gone up over time. Remember October 11, 2007? You probably don’t but on that day the S&P 500 reached 1,576.09—an all-time high. Sixteen months later, the S&P 500 was half that. A lot of people panic-sold during that time.

Fast forward to 2026 and the S&P 500 is six-times higher. If you had simply left your money invested in diversified funds over the last 20 years, you would have done great.

However, if you pulled your money out in the middle of the slide and were slow to buy back, you may not have done as well, because you would have lost some of the compound growth potential of your investments, first by locking in your losses, and then by missing time in the market as it recovered.

How Your Retirement Plan Helps You Stay on Course

If you’re making automatic, regular contributions from your paycheck into a diversified portfolio, you’re already protecting yourself from having to make big decisions each time you put money aside. By simply trusting that you’ve properly set up your retirement account, you’re less tempted to “play the markets.”

Saving regularly each paycheck also spreads out the ups and downs of any one moment via dollar-cost averaging. Your contributions go further when prices are low and you buy fewer shares when prices are high.

Your retirement plan also offers investments that help you diversify and rebalance your portfolio over time. For example, target date funds focus on investments to help you grow your account when you’re young and shift more towards stability-oriented investments over time to help preserve your gains.

Focus on What You Can Control

You can’t control market performance, so it doesn’t make sense to constantly check your portfolio or make reactive decisions. What you can control is how much you save and how consistently you invest.

Rather than letting headlines raise your blood pressure, keep challenging yourself to put aside more for retirement and keep your eyes on your long-term goals. A bear market when you’re 30 or even 40 is not likely to change your retirement outlook that much. But deciding not to invest? Or chasing trends in the markets? Those activities are risky and can do long-term damage to your portfolio.

Instead of letting emotions get the best of you, maintain discipline and take advantage of opportunities to talk to Fisher\SMB retirement specialists. We can help you stay smart no matter what’s happening in the markets.

Time to Check in?

If you haven’t talked to a Fisher\SMB retirement specialist in a while, now is a great time to schedule a one-on-one meeting. Simply click here and pick a time that works best to review your goals, evaluate your savings, and find your balance.